top of page
Search

Q4 2025 Market Perspective

As the year winds down and the seasons shift from summer to fall, we begin to prepare for the Holidays. For many, the holidays bring optimism and joy. Historically, the market tends to deliver its best performance in the final quarter of the year due to increased sales and consumer spending. Thankfully, we can say that the market has had a great year, though it hasn’t been without its ups and downs, both in terms of price fluctuations and the unexpected number of events we experienced. Early on, many investors worried that some of these events would negatively affect the market, with some forecasting higher inflation and a possible recession driven by higher tariffs. Despite the sharp drop we experienced earlier this year and finishing the third quarter with a government shutdown, the market has proved resilient, with the S&P 500 delivering 13.73% YTD (Year-to-date) as of September 30th, 2025, while the NASDAQ Composite returned 17.34% for the same period, rewarding those who remained invested. As we continue to watch and monitor market trends, this time of year is a great opportunity to review your portfolio to ensure it remains positioned according to your needs.


Inflation

Although inflation has eased, it continues to be a top concern for the Federal Reserve Bank as it tries to maintain a somewhat stable labor market. When looking back a year

ree

ago, inflation increased by 0.4 pp (Percentage Points) from 2.5% YoY (Year over Year) to 2.9% YoY as of August 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has remained relatively the same, increasing by 0.1 pp from 4.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY as of August 2025. Although the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to keep prices stable and maximize employment, its focus may shift depending on the inherent risks from other economic or geopolitical factors. During the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve recalibrated their policy stance, placing a higher weight on the labor market due to changes in trade and immigration policies.

There have also been concerns about the latest labor market reports, particularly Nonfarm payrolls, which track the number of jobs added to the economy each month. Most recently, these reports have shown relatively low numbers, creating concerns about the broader economy. Powell highlighted a key point, stating that we may face an unusual situation where the supply and demand for workers have slowed, thereby increasing the risks of higher unemployment. Because of these risks, the Federal Reserve has implemented its first rate cut of 2025.


Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve has faced economic uncertainty and political pressure for a while. In September, it implemented its first rate cut of the year, lowering interest rates by 25 basis points. In addition, they announced that more cuts are on the table for the

remainder of the year. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve faces another unforeseen obstacle. The Government shutdown suspended the release of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which the Federal Reserve relies heavily on for key economic data.

ree

At the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the Federal Reserve released a summary of economic projections, stating that it forecasts a lower federal funds rate by the end of the year, targeting a 3.6% level, while unemployment is expected to come a little higher at 4.5% by the end of the year.

Traditionally, rate cuts have benefited stocks, but they also affect the bond market. Given the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, we expect continued market shifts and remain alert for any signals that may indicate an adjustment to our portfolios.


CWM Portfolios

Currently, we are faced with many unknowns that could potentially have consequences for the market, and one of those events is the Government shutdown. Historically speaking, the market doesn’t react to government shutdowns, and if anything, it has risen during those periods and even 12 months after the shutdown.


ree

Even experienced investors often fall victim to the market noise. Even though this is common, it is also common for markets to recover in the long run.

Due to the ever-changing market, Corinthian Wealth Management continuously evaluates incoming data that could potentially affect our current portfolios. Ultimately, it comes down to having a plan to stick through during volatile times.

Corinthian Wealth Management is your partner when it comes to your finances. We are a resource when you have questions. If you want to know how something will impact your financial situation, please contact your main advisor at (408) 995-0915.


Advisory services offered through Corinthian Wealth Management, Inc. a Registered Investment Advisor.






Sources

 
 
 

Comments

Site Map

corinthian_transparent (1).png

Address:

1625 The Alameda, Suite 308
San Jose, CA 95126

Email:

info@corinthianwealth.com

Phone:

 (408) 995-0915

Social:

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn

Advisory services offered through Corinthian Wealth Management, INC. a Registered Investment Advisor.

This site is published for residents of the United States and is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or product that may be referenced herein. Persons mentioned on this website may only offer services and transact business and/or respond to inquiries in states or jurisdictions in which they have been properly registered or are exempt from registration. Not all products and services referenced on this site are available in every state, jurisdiction or from every person listed.

Customer Relationship Summary

bottom of page